Yeah, that’s great.

是啊，那很棒。

Is that whole meme where all guys are thinking about the Roman Empire at least once a day?

就是那个梗吗，说所有男人每天至少想一次罗马帝国？

Yeah, they usually came as a result of conquest. I mean, there’s some like the Hapsburg Empire where there was just a lot of clever marriages.

是啊，帝国通常是征服的结果。也有像哈布斯堡帝国那样的，靠大量精明的联姻。

Tested, Grok approved. Yeah.

经过测试，Grok 批准了。是的。

I’m generally a proponent of peace. I mean, ignorance is perhaps, in my view, the real enemy to be countered. That’s the real hard part, not fighting other humans, but all creatures fight. I mean, the jungle is… People think of nature as perhaps some sort of peaceful thing, but in fact it is not. There’s some quite funny Werner Herzog thing where he is in the jungle saying that it’s basically just murder and death in every direction. The plants and animals in the jungle are constantly trying to kill each other every single day, every minute. So it’s not like we’re unusual in that respect.

我总体上支持和平。在我看来，无知或许才是真正需要对抗的敌人。那才是真正困难的部分，而不是跟其他人打仗——所有生物都会打。丛林嘛……人们以为大自然是某种和平的东西，但事实并非如此。Werner Herzog 有个挺搞笑的片段，他在丛林里说那里基本上四面八方都是谋杀和死亡。丛林里的动植物每一天、每一分钟都在不停地试图杀死彼此。所以在这方面我们并不特殊。

Yes. We have much more vulnerability to control our limbic instinct for violence than say a chimpanzee. And in fact, if one looks at say, chimpanzee society, it is not friendly. I mean, the Bonobos are an exception, but chimpanzee society is filled with violence and it’s quite horrific, frankly. That’s our limbic system in action. You don’t want to be on the wrong side of a chimpanzee, it’ll eat your face off and tear your nuts off.

是的。我们控制暴力边缘本能的脆弱性远不如黑猩猩。事实上，如果你看看黑猩猩社会，它并不友好。我是说，倭黑猩猩是个例外，但黑猩猩社会充满了暴力，坦白说相当可怕。这就是我们边缘系统在起作用。你可不想站在黑猩猩的对立面，它会咬掉你的脸、撕掉你的蛋蛋。

Yeah. Chimpanzee society is a permanent version of human society. They’re not like peace loving basically at all. There’s extreme violence and then once in a while, somebody who’s watched too many Disney movies decides to raise a chimpanzee as a pet, and then that eats their face or they’re nuts off or chew their fingers off and that kind of thing. It’s happened several times.

是的。黑猩猩社会就是人类社会的永久版本。它们根本谈不上爱好和平。那里有极端的暴力，然后偶尔有人迪士尼电影看多了，决定把黑猩猩当宠物养，结果那家伙就咬掉他们的脸、撕掉蛋蛋、咬掉手指之类的。这种事发生过好几次了。

It’s happened to people. It’s unfortunate. That’s, I guess, one way to ensure that the other chimp doesn’t contribute to the gene pool.

确实发生在人身上过。很不幸。我猜，这是确保另一只黑猩猩不贡献基因库的一种方式。

The nut rougher.

碎蛋器。

I think it’s safe to say if somebody’s got your nuts in their hands and as the option of roughing them off, you’ll be amenable to whatever they want.

我觉得可以肯定地说，如果有人把你的蛋蛋握在手里、还有把它们捏碎的选择，你会对他们言听计从的。

Yeah.

是的。

Well, I think that part of the world is definitely, if you look up… There is no easy answer in the dictionary. It’ll be the picture of the Middle East in Israel especially. So there is no easy answer. This is strictly my opinion is that the goal of Hamas was to provoke an overreaction from Israel. They obviously did not expect to have a military victory, but they really wanted to commit the worst atrocities that they could in order to provoke the most aggressive response possible from Israel, and then leverage that aggressive response to rally Muslims worldwide for the course of Gaza and Palestine, which they have succeeded in doing. So the counterintuitive thing here, I think that the thing that I think should be done, even though it’s very difficult, is that I would recommend that Israel engage in the most conspicuous acts of kindness possible, everything, that is the actual thing that we’re taught the goal of Hamas.

嗯，我觉得那个地区……你在字典里查不到简单的答案。那会是中东尤其是以色列的写照。所以没有简单的答案。这纯粹是我的看法：哈马斯的目标是挑起以色列的过度反应。他们显然没指望取得军事胜利，但他们确实想尽可能犯下最恶劣的暴行，以激起以色列最激烈的回应，然后利用这种激烈回应在全球动员穆斯林支持加沙和巴勒斯坦的事业，而他们成功地做到了。所以这里反直觉的一点是，我认为应该做的事——尽管非常困难——我建议以色列采取最引人注目的善举，一切善举，那才是真正能挫败哈马斯目标的做法。

It’s not exactly turn the other cheek because I do think that it is appropriate for Israel to find the Hamas members and either kill them or incarcerate them. That’s something has to be done because they’re just going to keep coming otherwise. But in addition to that, they need to do whatever they can. There’s some talk of establishing, for example, a mobile hospital. I’d recommend doing that. Just making sure that there’s food, water, medical necessities and just be over the top about it and be very transparent. So [inaudible 00:07:22] can claim it’s a trick. Just put webcam on the thing or 24, 7.

不完全是打左脸给右脸，因为我确实认为以色列找到哈马斯成员并杀掉或关押他们是恰当的。这事必须做，否则他们只会不断卷土重来。但除此之外，他们需要尽其所能。比如有人谈到建立移动医院，我建议这么做。确保有食物、水、医疗必需品，而且要做得极其高调、非常透明。这样别人就不能说这是个诡计。直接给那东西装上摄像头，24小时直播。

Yeah, conspicuous acts of kindness that are unequivocal, meaning they can’t be somehow because Hamas will then their response will be, “Oh, it’s a trick.” Therefore, you have to counter how it’s not a trick.

是的，毫不含糊的、引人注目的善举，意思是它们不可能被曲解，因为哈马斯会回应说“哦，这是个诡计”。所以你必须反驳它为什么不是诡计。

Yes. And I’m not sure who said it, it’s an [inaudible 00:07:54] saying, but an eye for an eye makes everyone blind. Now, that neck of the woods, they really believe in the whole eye for an eye thing. But you really have… If you’re not going to just outright commit genocide against an entire people, which obviously would not be acceptable to really, shouldn’t be acceptable to anyone, then you’re going to leave basically a lot of people alive who subsequently hate Israel. So really the question is like for every Hamas member that you kill, how many did you create? And if you create more than you killed, you’ve not succeeded. That’s the real situation there. And it’s safe to say that if you kill somebody’s child in Gaza, you’ve made at least a few homeless members who will die just to kill an Israeli. That’s the situation. But I mean, this is one of the most contentious subjects one could possibly discuss. But I think if the goal ultimately is some sort of long-term piece, one has to look at this from the standpoint of over time, are there more or fewer terrorists being created?

是的。我不确定是谁说的，是一句老话：以眼还眼，让所有人都瞎。在那个地方，他们真的信奉以眼还眼那一套。但你真的得……如果你不打算对一整个民族公然实施种族灭绝——那显然是不可接受的，不应该被任何人接受——那你基本上会留下很多 subsequently 仇恨以色列的人。所以真正的问题是：你每杀掉一个哈马斯成员，又制造了多少个？如果你制造的多于你杀掉的，你就没有成功。这就是那里的真实情况。而且可以肯定地说，如果你在加沙杀了某人的孩子，你至少制造了几个无家可归的成员，他们愿意只为杀一个以色列人而死。这就是情况。但我是说，这是你能讨论的最具争议的话题之一。不过我认为，如果最终目标是某种长期和平，就必须从长远角度看待：随着时间推移，被制造出来的恐怖分子是更多还是更少？

Yeah, war, safe to say, wars always existed and always will exist.

是的，战争，可以肯定地说，战争一直存在，也将永远存在。

Always has existed and always will exist.

一直存在，也将永远存在。

There will always be war. There’s a question of just how much war and there’s sort of the scope and scale of war. But to imagine that there would not be any war in the future, I think would be a very unlikely outcome.

永远会有战争。问题只是战争有多少，以及战争的范围和规模。但想象未来完全没有战争，我认为那是极不可能的结果。

Yes. It’s a giant war. The first book starts off with a gigantic galactic war where trillions die trillions.

是的。那是一场巨大的战争。第一本书就以一场亿万生灵死亡的银河大战开场，数以万亿计。

Yeah, I guess if we are able to one day expand to fool the galaxy or whatever, there will be a galactic war at some point.

是的，我猜如果我们有一天能扩展到整个银河系之类的，某个时候总会有一场银河战争。

Yes.

是的。

One of the things that does concern me is that there are very few people alive today who actually viscerally understand the horrors of war, at least in the US. I mean, obviously there are people on the front lines in Ukraine and Russia who understand just how terrible war is, but how many people in the West understand it? My grandfather was in World War II. He was severely traumatized. He was there I think for almost six years in Eastern North Africa and Italy. All his friends were killed in front of him, and he would’ve died too, except they randomly gave some, I guess IQ test or something, and he scored very high. He was not an officer. He was I think a corporal or a sergeant or something like that because he didn’t finish high school because he had to drop out of high school because his dad died and he had to work to support his siblings. So because he didn’t graduate high school, he was not eligible for the offset corps.

让我担忧的一件事是，如今真正切身理解战争恐怖的人已经很少了，至少在美国是这样。我的意思是，显然乌克兰和俄罗斯前线的人明白战争有多可怕，但西方有多少人懂呢？我祖父参加过二战。他受了严重的心理创伤。我记得他在东非、北非和意大利待了将近六年。他所有的朋友都死在他面前，他本来也会死，只是他们随机给他做了个什么测试，大概是智商测试之类的，他得分很高。他不是军官。我记得他是个下士或中士之类的，因为他没念完高中——他爸去世了，他不得不辍学打工养活弟妹。所以因为他没高中毕业，就没资格进军官团。

Yeah, I mean, there are enough nuclear bombs pointed at United States to make the radioactive revel balance many times.

是的，我的意思是，对准美国的核弹足够把放射性尘埃的平衡打破很多倍。

I think we shouldn’t discount the possibility of nuclear war. It is a civilizational threat. Right now, I could be wrong, but I think the current probability of nuclear war is quite low. But there are a lot of nukes pointed at us, and we have a lot of nukes pointed at other people. They’re still there. Nobody’s put their guns away. The missiles are still in the silos.

我认为我们不应该低估核战争的可能性。这是文明级别的威胁。目前，我可能说错，但我认为核战争的概率相当低。但有很多核弹对准我们，我们也有很多核弹对准别人。它们还在那儿。没人把枪收起来。导弹还在发射井里。

No, there are wars which are tragic and difficult on a local basis. And then there are wars which are civilization ending or has that potential. Obviously, global thermonuclear warfare has high potential to end civilization, perhaps permanently, but certainly to severely wound and perhaps set back human progress to the Stone Age or something. I don’t know. Pretty bad. Probably scientists and engineers want to be super popular after that as well. You got us into this mess. So generally, I think we obviously want to prioritize civilizational risks over things that are painful and tragic on a local level, but not civilizational.

不，有些战争在局部层面是悲惨而艰难的。还有些战争是终结文明的，或者有这种潜力。显然，全球热核战争极有可能终结文明，也许是永久性的，但肯定会造成重创，也许把人类进步打回石器时代之类。我不知道。相当糟糕。大概那之后科学家和工程师也想超级受欢迎吧。是你们把我们搞进这烂摊子的。所以总的来说，我认为我们显然应该把文明级风险置于那些局部痛苦悲惨但非文明级的事情之上。

Well, I think that what is likely to happen, which is really pretty much the way it is, is that something very close to the current lines will be how a ceasefire or truce happens. But you just have a situation right now where whoever goes on the offensive will suffer casualties at several times the rate of whoever’s on the defense because you’ve got defense in depth, you’ve got minefields, trenches, anti-tank defenses. Nobody has air superiority because the anti-aircraft missiles are really far better than the aircraft. They’re far more of them. And so neither side has air superiority. Tanks are basically death traps, just slow moving, and they’re not immune to anti-tank weapons. So you really just have long range artillery and infantry ranges. It’s World War I all over again with drones, thrown old drones, some drones there.

嗯，我认为很可能发生的情况——基本上现实就是这样——停火或休战会大致沿当前战线。但现在的情况是，谁进攻，谁的伤亡率就会是防守方的好几倍，因为你有纵深防御、雷区、战壕、反坦克防御。谁都没有制空权，因为防空导弹远比飞机强得多，而且数量多得多。所以双方都没有制空权。坦克基本上就是死亡陷阱，移动缓慢，而且挡不住反坦克武器。所以实际上只有远程火炮和步兵交战距离。这就是一战重演，只不过加上了无人机，扔的是旧无人机，有些无人机在那儿。

So whoever is… You don’t want to be trying to advance from either side because the probability of dying is incredibly high. So in order to overcome defense in depth, trenches and minefields, you really need a significant local superiority in numbers. Ideally combined alms where you do a fast attack with aircraft, a concentrated number of tanks, and a lot of people, that’s the only way you’re going to punch through a line and then you’re going to punch through and then not have reinforcements just kick you right out again. I mean, I really recommend people read World War I warfare in detail. That’s rough. I mean, the sheer number of people that died there was mind-boggling.

所以不管是谁……你不想从任何一方试图推进，因为死亡概率极高。要突破纵深防御、战壕和雷区，你确实需要显著的局部兵力优势。理想情况下是合成兵种作战：用飞机快速突击、集中数量的坦克和大量人员，这是唯一能突破防线的方式，而且突破之后还得有增援，不然马上就被赶回去。我真的建议大家详细读读一战战史。那很残酷。死的人数量之多令人难以置信。

Yes. The thing that… The reason I proposed some sort of truce or peace a year ago was because I’ve predicted pretty much exactly what would happen, which is a lot of people dying for basically almost no changes in land and the loss of the flower of Ukrainian and Russian youth. And we should have some sympathy for the Russian boys as well as the Ukrainian boys, because Russian boys, because boys didn’t ask to be on their frontline. They have to be. So there’s a lot of sons not coming back to their parents, and I think most of them don’t hate the other side. It’s sort of like as this saying comes from World War I, it’s like young boys who don’t know each other killing each other on behalf of old men that do know each other. The hell’s the point of that.

是的。那个……我一年前提出某种休战或和平的原因，是因为我基本准确预测了会发生什么：大量的人死去，领土几乎没变，乌克兰和俄罗斯的年轻精华损失殆尽。我们也应该对俄罗斯小伙子们和乌克兰小伙子们抱有同情，因为俄罗斯小伙子们也没要求上前线。他们不得不去。所以有很多儿子回不了家。我认为他们大多数人并不恨对方。就像一战那句话说的：互不相识的年轻男孩，代表彼此相识的老头们互相残杀。这到底有什么意义。

Look, I think I would just recommend do not send the flower of Ukrainian youth to die in trenches, whether he talks to Putin or not, just don’t do that. Whoever goes on the offensive will lose massive numbers of people and history will not look kindly upon them.

听着，我想我只会建议：不要把乌克兰的年轻精华送进战壕去送死，不管他跟普京谈不谈，就是别那么做。谁进攻谁就会损失大量人员，历史不会善待他们。

Well, it’s worth reading that book on the, difficult to pronounce, the Thucydides Trap, I believe it’s called. I love war history. I like inside out and backwards. There’s hardly a battle I haven’t read about. And trying to figure out what really was the cause of victory in any particular case as opposed to what one side or another claim the reason.

嗯，值得读读那本名字很难念的书，我记得叫《修昔底德陷阱》。我喜欢战争史。我喜欢从里到外、倒着读。几乎没有哪场战役我没读过。我喜欢弄清某场胜利的真正原因，而不是某一方声称的原因。

Yeah, yeah.

对，对。

Yeah. So that Athens and Sparta is a classic case. The thing about the Greek is they really wrote down a lot of stuff. They loved writing. There are lots of interesting things that happened in many parts of the world, but people didn’t write down, so we don’t know what happened or they didn’t really write in detail. They just would say, “We had a battle and we won.” And what? Can you add a bit more? The Greeks, they really wrote a lot. They were very articulate on… They just love writing. And we have a bunch of that writing as preserved. So we know what led up to the Peloponnesian War between the Spartanand Athenian Alliance, and we know that they saw it coming.

对。雅典和斯巴达就是经典案例。希腊人的一点是他们真的写下了很多东西。他们热爱写作。世界很多地方发生过很多有趣的事，但人们没写下来，所以我们不知道发生了什么，或者他们没详细写。他们只会说“我们打了一仗，赢了”。然后呢？能多说点吗？希腊人真的写了很多。他们非常善于表达……他们就是爱写。而且我们保存下来了一批那样的文字。所以我们知道斯巴达和雅典联盟之间伯罗奔尼撒战争的来龙去脉，我们知道他们预见到了。

I’ve spent a lot of time in China and met with the leadership many times.

我在中国待过很多时间，多次见过领导层。

Well, the sheer number of really smart, hardworking people in China is incredible. There are really say how many smart, hardworking people are there in China? There’s far more of them there than there are here, I think, in my opinion. And they’ve got a lot of energy. So I mean, the architecture in China that’s in recent years is far more impressive than the US. I mean the train stations, the buildings, the high speed rail, everything, it’s really far more impressive than what we have in the US. I mean, I recommend somebody just go to Shanghai and Beijing, look at the buildings and go to take the train from Beijing to Xian, where you have the terracotta warriors. China’s got an incredible history, very long history, and I think arguably in terms of the use of language from a written standpoint, one of the oldest, perhaps the oldest written language, and then China, people did write things down.

嗯，中国聪明勤奋的人数量之多令人难以置信。中国到底有多少聪明勤奋的人？在我看来，那里比这里多得多。而且他们很有干劲。我的意思是，中国近年来的建筑远比美国令人印象深刻。火车站、建筑、高铁，一切，真的比我们美国的强得多。我建议有人就去上海和北京看看建筑，然后坐火车从北京到西安看兵马俑。中国有令人难以置信的历史，非常悠久的历史，而且我认为从书面语言的角度说，可以说是最古老的文字之一，也许是最古老的书面语言，而且中国人确实把东西写下来了。

The good news, the history of China suggests that China is not inquisitive, meaning they’re not going to go out and invade a whole bunch of countries. Now they do feel very strongly… So that’s good. I mean, because a lot of very powerful countries have been inquisitive. The US is also one of the rare cases that has not been inquisitive. After World War II, the US could have basically taken over the world in any country, we’ve got nukes, nobody else has got nukes. We don’t even have to lose soldiers. Which country do you want? And the United States could have taken over everything and it didn’t. And the United States actually helped rebuild countries. So it helped rebuild Europe, helped rebuild Japan. This is very unusual behavior, almost unprecedented.

好消息是，中国的历史表明中国并不好战好奇，也就是说他们不会出去入侵一大堆国家。当然他们确实有很强的……所以这是好事。我是说，因为很多非常强大的国家都曾好战扩张。美国也是罕见的不好战扩张的国家之一。二战后，美国本可以基本接管世界上任何国家，我们有核武器，别人都没有核武器。我们甚至不用损失士兵。你想要哪个国家？美国本可以接管一切，但它没有。美国实际上还帮助重建国家。它帮助重建了欧洲，帮助重建了日本。这是非常不寻常的行为，几乎前所未有。

Very much so. And in fact, Wernher von Braun, a smart guy, was like, “We’ve got to be captured by the Americans.” And in fact, the SS was under orders to execute von Braun and all of the German rocket conditioners, and they narrowly escaped. They said they were going out for a walk in the woods. They left in the middle of winter with no coats and then ran, but no food, no coats, no water, and just ran like hell and ran West and Vice Sherlock, I think his brother found a bicycle or something and then just cycled West as fast as he couldn’t have found a US patrol. So anyway, that’s one way you can tell morality is where do you want to be a PW? It’s not fun anywhere, but some places are much worse than others. Anyway, so America has been, while far from perfect, generally a benevolent force, and we should always be self-critical and we try to be better, but anyone with half a brain knows that.

非常如此。事实上，沃纳·冯·布劳恩是个聪明人，他说：“我们得被美国人抓住。”事实上，党卫军曾奉命处决冯·布劳恩和所有德国火箭专家，他们勉强逃脱。他们说要去树林里散步。他们在隆冬出发，没穿外套，然后跑，没食物、没外套、没水，就拼命跑，往西跑，我想他兄弟找到了自行车之类的，然后拼命往西骑，直到找到美国巡逻队。总之，这是判断道德的一种方式：你想在哪里当战俘？哪里都不好玩，但有些地方比别的地方糟得多。总之，美国虽然远非完美，但总体是一股仁慈的力量，我们应该始终自我批评，努力变得更好，但任何有点脑子的人都明白这一点。

Yes, China has been very clear that they’ll incorporate Taiwan peacefully or militarily, but that they will incorporate it from their standpoint is 100% likely.

是的，中国已经非常明确，他们会和平或军事地统一台湾，但从他们的立场看，统一是100%必然的。

Absolutely. So after World War I, they made a big mistake. They basically tried to lump all of blame on Germany and saddle Germany with impossible reparations. And really there was quite a bit of blame to go around for World War I, but they try to put it all in Germany and that laid the seeds for World War II. So a lot of people, were not just Hitler, a lot of people felt wronged and they wanted vengeance and they got it.

绝对如此。一战后他们犯了大错。他们基本上试图把所有罪责归咎于德国，让德国背负不可能的赔款。其实一战的责任相当分散，但他们试图全推给德国，这为二战埋下种子。所以很多人，不只是希特勒，很多人觉得受了冤屈，想要复仇，他们得到了。

Yeah, you kill somebody’s father, mother or son, daughter, they’re not going to forget it. They’ll want vengeance. So after World War II, they’re like, “Well, the Treaty of Versi was a huge mistake in World War I. And so this time, instead of crushing the losers, we’re actually going to help them with the module plan, and we’re going to help rebuild Germany. We’re going to help rebuild Austria and Italy and whatnot.” So that was the right move.

是的，你杀了别人的父亲、母亲、儿子、女儿，他们不会忘记。他们会想复仇。所以二战后他们说：“凡尔赛条约是一战的巨大错误。所以这次，我们不碾压失败者，而是通过马歇尔计划真正帮助他们，帮助重建德国、奥地利、意大利等等。”所以那是正确的举动。

Something must stop the cycle of reciprocal violence. Something must stop it, or it’ll never stop. Just eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth, limb for a limb, life for a life forever and ever.

必须有东西阻止以暴易暴的循环。必须阻止，否则永远不会停。以眼还眼、以牙还牙、以肢还肢、以命还命，永永远远。

Yeah, I guess I’m to blame for that one.

是的，那个大概得怪我。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah, absolutely. Our AI, Grok, is modeled after The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, which is one of my favorite books, which it’s a book on philosophy. It’s-

是的，绝对。我们的AI Grok是以《银河系漫游指南》为原型的，那是我最喜欢的书之一，它是一本关于哲学的书。它——

My favorite books, it’s a book on philosophy, disguises book on humor. And I would say that forms the basis of my philosophy, which is that we don’t know the meaning of life, but the more we can expand the scope and scale of consciousness, digital and biological, the more we’re able to understand what questions to ask about the answer that is the universe. So I have a philosophy of curiosity.

我最喜欢的书之一，它是一本哲学书，伪装成幽默书。我会说它构成了我哲学的基础，那就是我们不知道生命的意义，但我们越能扩展意识的广度和规模，数字的和生物的，就越能理解该对宇宙这个答案提出什么问题。所以我有一种好奇的哲学。

Well, we are actually working hard to have engineering math, physics answers that you can count on. So for the other AIs out there, these so-called large language models, I’ve not found the engineering to be reliable. It unfortunately hallucinates most when you at least want it to hallucinate. So when you’re asking important, difficult questions, that’s when it tends to be confidently wrong. So we’re really trying hard to say, okay, how do we be as grounded as possible? So you can count on the results, trace things back to physics first principles, mathematical logic. So underlying the humor is an aspiration to adhere to the truth of the universe as closely as possible.

嗯，我们其实在努力让工程、数学、物理的答案可靠可信。至于外面其他AI，这些所谓的大型语言模型，我发现工程方面并不可靠。不幸的是，它恰恰在你最希望它别胡编时胡编。所以当你问重要、困难的问题时，它往往自信地犯错。所以我们真的很努力在想，好吧，怎么尽可能脚踏实地？让结果可信，把东西追溯回物理第一原理、数学逻辑。所以在幽默之下，是尽可能贴近宇宙真理的志向。

It is tricky. So that’s why there’s always going to be some amount of error. But do we want to aspire to be as truthful as possible about the answers with acknowledged error. So that there was always, you don’t want to be confidently wrong, so you’re not going to be right every time, but you want to minimize how often you’re confidently wrong. And then like I said, once you can count on the logic as being not violating physics, then you can start to bull on that to create inventions, like invent new technologies. But if you cannot count on the foundational physics being correct, obviously the inventions are simply wishful thinking, imagination land. Magic basically.

确实很难。所以总会有一定误差。但我们要不要立志尽可能真实地回答问题，并承认误差。所以永远不要自信地犯错，你不会每次都正确，但要尽量减少自信犯错的频率。然后就像我说的，一旦逻辑可信、不违反物理，你就可以在此基础上创造发明，发明新技术。但如果你不能确信基础物理正确，那发明显然只是一厢情愿、想象世界。基本就是魔法。

Yes, that’s how simple three word mission.

是的，就是简单的三个词使命。

If an AI cannot figure out new physics, it’s clearly not equal to humans, nor has surpassed humans because humans have figured out new physics. Physics is just deepening what’s inside into how reality works. And then there’s engineering which is inventing things that have never existed. Now the range of possibilities for engineering is far greater than for physics because once you figure out the rules of the universe, that’s it. You’ve discovered things that already existed. But from that you can then build technologies that are really almost limitless in the variety. And it’s like once you understand the rules of the game properly, and with current physics, we do at least at a local level, understand how physics works very well. Our ability to predict things is incredibly good. Degree to which quantum mechanics can predict outcomes is incredible. That was my hardest class in college by the way. My senior quantum mechanics class was harder than all of my other classes put together.

如果AI无法弄清新物理，它显然就不等于人类，也没有超越人类，因为人类已经弄清了新物理。物理只是深入探究现实如何运作。然后是工程，发明从未存在过的东西。工程的可能性范围远大于物理，因为一旦你弄清宇宙的规则，就到此为止。你发现的是已经存在的东西。但由此你可以建造种类几乎无限的技术。就像一旦你正确理解游戏规则，而就当前物理而言，至少在局部层面，我们非常了解物理如何运作。我们预测事物的能力极其出色。量子力学预测结果的准确度令人难以置信。顺便说，那是我大学最难的一门课。我大四的量子力学课比我其他所有课加起来还难。

Yeah. You have to test any conclusions against the ground truth of reality. Reality is the ultimate judge. Like physics is the law, everything else is a recommendation. I’ve seen plenty of people break the laws made by man, but none break the laws made by physics.

是的。你必须用现实的基准真相来检验任何结论。现实是终极裁判。物理是法律，其他一切都只是建议。我见过很多人违反人定的法律，但没人能违反物理定律。

And it’s also not the case currently that even that its internal logic is not consistent. So especially with the approach of just predicting a token predict token, predict token, it’s like a vector sum. You’re summing up a bunch of vectors, but you can get drift. A little bit of error adds up and by the time you are many tokens down the path, it doesn’t make any sense.

而且目前即使这样，它的内部逻辑也不一致。尤其是那种一个token一个token预测的方法，就像向量求和。你在累加一堆向量，但会出现漂移。一点小误差累积起来，等你走了很多token之后，就完全说不通了。

It has to be self-aware about the drift, and then look at the thing as a gestalt as a whole and say it doesn’t have coherence as a whole. When authors write books, they will write the book and then they’ll go and revise it, take into account all the end and the beginning and the middle and rewrite it to achieve coherence so that it doesn’t end up at a nonsensical place.

它必须对漂移有自我意识，然后把整体当作一个格式塔来看，说它整体上不连贯。作家写书时会先写完，然后回头修改，把结尾、开头和中间都考虑进去重写，以达到连贯，避免最后落到毫无意义的地方。

Create a draft and then you iterate on that draft until it has coherence, until it all adds up basically.

先写个草稿，然后不断迭代修改，直到它连贯、直到整体说得通。

No, I in team America. Wait, there is.

不，是《美国战队》里的I。等等，确实有。

Yeah. I think we need to understand intelligence, understand consciousness. I mean there are some fundamental questions of what is thought, what is emotion? Is it really just one atom bumping into another atom? It feels like something more than that. So I think we’re probably missing some really big things.

是的。我认为我们需要理解智能、理解意识。有些根本问题：什么是思想，什么是情感？真的只是原子互相碰撞吗？感觉不止如此。所以我觉得我们可能漏掉了一些非常重大的东西。

Well, some people would quote like a soul religion, be a soul. You feel like you’re you, I mean you don’t feel like you’re just a collection of atoms, but on what dimension does thought exist? What dimension does do emotions exist? Because we feel them very strongly. I suspect there’s more to it than atoms bumping into atoms.

有些人会引述灵魂、宗教，说有个灵魂。你感觉你就是你，你不觉得自己只是一堆原子，但思想存在于哪个维度？情感存在于哪个维度？因为我们强烈地感受到它们。我怀疑事情不止是原子撞原子。

Yeah. What is consciousness? When you put the atoms in a particular shape, why are they able to form thoughts and take actions and feelings?

是的。什么是意识？当你把原子排成特定形状，为什么它们能形成思想、采取行动并产生感受？

Yeah. Why does the solution exist? On what plane does the solution exist? And sometimes I wonder is either perhaps everything’s conscious or nothing’s conscious. One of the two.

是的。为什么解会存在？解存在于哪个层面？有时我想，也许一切都有意识，或者一切都没有意识。二者之一。

It does seem more fun, yes. But we’re composed of atoms and those atoms are composed of quarks and leptons and those quarks and leptons have been around since the beginning of the universe.

确实更有趣。但我们由原子组成，原子又由夸克和轻子组成，这些夸克和轻子从宇宙诞生起就存在了。

What seems to be the beginning of the universe.

所谓的宇宙诞生。

Where are the aliens?

外星人在哪？

That’s one of the foam paradox question. A lot of people have asked me if I’ve seen any evidence of aliens and I haven’t, which is kind of concerning. I think I’d probably prefer to at least have seen some archeological evidence of aliens. To the best of my knowledge, I’m not aware of any evidence surveillance. If they’re out there, they’re very subtle. We might just be the only consciousness, at least in the galaxy. And if you look at say the history of Earth, to believe the archeological record Earth is about four and a half billion years old. Civilization as measured from the first writing is only about 5,000 years old. We have to give some credit there to the ancient Sumerians who aren’t around anymore. I think it was an archaic pre-form was the first actual symbolic representation, but only about 5,000 years ago. I think that’s a good date for when we say civilization started. That’s 1000000th of Earth’s existence.

这是费米悖论的问题之一。很多人问我有没有见过外星人证据，我没见过，这有点令人担忧。我大概更希望至少见过一些外星人的考古证据。据我所知，我不知道任何证据。如果它们存在，它们非常隐蔽。我们可能是唯一的意识，至少在银河系里。看看地球历史，考古记录显示地球约45亿年。从最早文字算起，文明只有约5000年。得给古苏美尔人一些功劳，他们已不在了。我认为那是最早的实际符号表征，但只是约5000年前。我认为这是文明开始的好日期。那是地球存在时间的百万分之一。

We need to do it. I suspect that if we are able to go out there and explore other star systems that we… There’s a good chance we find a whole bunch of long dead one planet civilizations that never made it past their home planet.

我们需要去做。我怀疑如果我们能出去探索其他恒星系，我们很可能发现一大堆早已灭亡的单行星文明，它们从未走出自己的母星。

I mean there are various explanations for paradox and one is they’re these great vultures which civilizations don’t pass through. And one of those great vultures is do you become a multi-plan civilization or not? And if you don’t, it’s simply a matter of time before something happens on your planet, either natural or manmade that causes us to die out. Like the dinosaurs, where are they now? They didn’t have spaceships.

我的意思是，对费米悖论有各种解释，其中一种是存在这些巨大的'过滤器'，文明无法穿越。其中一个巨大的过滤器就是：你是否成为多行星文明？如果你不成为，那么你的星球上迟早会发生某些事，无论是自然的还是人为的，导致我们灭绝。就像恐龙，它们现在在哪？它们可没有飞船。

I hope so. Nice aliens.

希望如此。善良的外星人。

That would be a nice explanation.

那会是个不错的解释。

Well, they do run into a lot of other ants.

嗯，它们确实会遇到很多其他蚂蚁。

These ant wars.

这些蚂蚁战争。

Yeah. They literally have these big wars between various ants.

是的。它们确实会在各种蚂蚁之间爆发大战。

Listen to that Werner Herzog talking about the jungle. It’s really hilarious. Have you heard it?

去听听沃纳·赫尔佐格讲丛林的那段。真的很搞笑。你听过吗？

You should play it as an interlude in the… It’s on YouTube. It’s awesome.

你应该把它作为插曲放进去……YouTube上有。特别棒。

He’s great.

他很棒。

He did that bear documentary. I did this thing about penguins.

他拍了那部关于熊的纪录片。我拍了关于企鹅的那个。

Yeah. The penguins headed for mountains that are 70 miles away and penguin is just headed for dom, basically.

是的。那些企鹅朝着70英里外的山脉前进，基本上就是奔向死亡。

Yeah. So aliens, I mean, I don’t know. Look, I think the smart move is just this is the first time in the history of earth that it’s been possible for life to extend beyond earth. That window is open. Now it may be open for a long time or it may be open for a short time and it may be open now and then never open again. So I think the smart move here is to make life multiplanetary while it’s possible to do so. We don’t want to be one of those lame one planet civilizations that just dies out.

是的。所以外星人，我的意思是，我不知道。听着，我认为明智的做法是——这是地球历史上第一次生命有可能扩展到地球之外。这扇窗口打开了。它可能开很久，也可能开很短，可能现在开着以后就再也不开了。所以我认为明智的做法是在可能的时候让生命成为多行星的。我们不想成为那种只待在一个星球上然后灭绝的蹩脚文明。

Yeah. Lame. Self-respecting, civilization would be one planet.

是的。蹩脚。一个有自尊的文明应该只待在一个星球上。

No.

没有。

I mean, look, if I see the slightest indication that there are aliens, I will immediately post on X platform anything I know.

我的意思是，听着，如果我看到任何外星人存在的最细微迹象，我会立刻在X平台上公布我所知道的一切。

Yeah. I mean, look, we have more satellites up there right now than everyone else combined. So we know if we’ve got a maneuver around something and we don’t have to maneuver around anything.

是的。我的意思是，你看，我们现在在轨的卫星比所有其他人的总和还多。所以我们知道如果要机动规避某个东西，而我们其实不需要规避任何东西。

Yes.

是的。

Yeah. I would agree that God of the simulator or whatever the supreme beings reveal themselves through the physics, they have creatives of this existence and incumbent upon us to try to understand more about this one creation.

是的。我同意，模拟器的上帝或者无论什么至高存在都通过物理规律显现自身，他们创造了这个存在，而我们有责任去更多地理解这一个创造。

There may not be a master plan in the sense. So maybe an interesting answer to the question of determinism versus free will is that if we are in a simulation, the reason that these higher beings would hold a simulation is to see what happens. So they don’t know what happens otherwise they wouldn’t hold the simulation. So when humans create a simulation, so it’s SpaceX and Tesla, we create simulations all the time. Especially for the rocket, you have to run a lot of simulations to understand what’s going to happen because you can’t really test the rocket until it goes to space and you want it to work. So you have to simulate subsonic, transonic, supersonic, hypersonic, ascend, and then coming back, super high heating and orbital dynamics. All this has got to be simulated because you don’t get very many kicks at the can. But we run the simulations to see what happens, not if we knew what happens, we wouldn’t run the simulation. So whoever created this existence, they’re running it because they don’t know what’s going to happen, not because they do.

可能并不存在那种意义上的宏大计划。所以对决定论与自由意志这个问题，一个有趣的答案也许是：如果我们身处模拟之中，那些更高存在运行模拟的原因就是想看看会发生什么。他们并不知道会发生什么，否则就不会运行模拟了。人类做模拟时，比如 SpaceX 和特斯拉，我们一直在做模拟。尤其是火箭，你必须跑大量模拟来了解会发生什么，因为火箭真正上太空之前你没法真正测试，而你希望它成功。所以你必须模拟亚音速、跨音速、超音速、高超音速、上升段，还有返回时超高温加热和轨道动力学。所有这些都得模拟，因为你没有太多试错机会。但我们跑模拟是为了看看会发生什么，如果知道会发生什么就不会跑了。所以无论谁创造了这个存在，他们运行它是因为不知道会发生什么，而不是因为知道。

Well, the funny thing is Uber Lilith, her title is Hatred Incarnate. And right now, I guess you can ask the Diablo team, but it’s almost impossible to defeat Hatred in the eternal realm.

有趣的是，Uber Lilith 的头衔是「仇恨化身」。现在，你可以去问暗黑团队，但在永恒领域里几乎不可能击败「仇恨」。

I can cruise through Tier 100 Nightmare Dungeon like a stroll in the park.

我通关100层噩梦地下城就像公园散步一样轻松。

Yeah. I guess maybe the second hardest boss is Duriel. Duriel can even scratch the paint. So I killed Duriel so many times and every other boss in the game, all of them kill him so many times, it’s easy. But Uber Lilith, otherwise known as Hatred Incarnate, especially if you’re Duriel and you have no ability to go to be vulnerable, there are these random death waves that come at you.

是的。我猜第二难的 Boss 可能是都瑞尔。都瑞尔连漆都刮不掉。我杀都瑞尔好多次，游戏里其他所有 Boss 也都杀过好多次，很容易。但 Uber Lilith，也就是「仇恨化身」，尤其如果你是都瑞尔、没法让敌人进入易伤状态，就会有这些随机的死亡波朝你扑来。

As a Druid. This is really vexing, let me tell you.

以德鲁伊身份。这真让人抓狂，我跟你说。

I would not recommend playing a druid in the eternal realm. Right now I think the most powerful character in the seasonal realm is the Sorcerer with the lightning balls. The smokes have huge balls in the seasonal.

我不建议在永恒领域玩德鲁伊。目前我认为赛季领域最强的角色是带闪电球的法师。法师在赛季里有巨大的球。

So have huge balls. They do huge balls of lightning.

所以有巨大的球。它们放出巨大的闪电球。

In the seasonal realm, it’s pretty easy to beat Uber Lilith because you get these vapor powers that out amplify your damage and increase your defense and whatnot. So really quite easy to defeat Hatred seasonally, but to defeat Hatred eternally very difficult, almost impossible. It’s very impossible. It seems like a metaphor for life.

在赛季领域，击败 Uber Lilith 挺容易的，因为你有这些蒸汽力量能放大伤害、提升防御等等。所以赛季里击败「仇恨」相当容易，但在永恒领域击败「仇恨」非常困难，几乎不可能。非常不可能。这看起来像是人生的隐喻。

Yes.

是的。

No, it’s absurd. Really, it’s exercise and absurdity and it makes me want to pull my hair out.

不，这很荒谬。真的是又锻炼又荒谬，让我想抓头发。

I don’t know. It calms my mind. I mean, killing the demons in a video game calms the demons in my mind. If you play a tough video game, you can get into a state of flow, which is very enjoyable. Admittedly, it needs to be not too easy, not too hard, kind of in the Goldilocks zone, and I guess you generally want to feel like you’re progressing in the game. A good video, and there’s also beautiful art, engaging storylines, and it’s like an amazing puzzle to solve, I think. So it’s like solving the puzzle.

我不知道。它让我内心平静。我的意思是，在游戏里杀恶魔能安抚我心中的恶魔。玩一款有难度的游戏，你能进入心流状态，非常享受。当然，难度不能太简单也不能太难，差不多在刚刚好的区间，而且你通常希望感觉自己有进展。好游戏还有精美的美术、引人入胜的剧情，像一个绝妙的谜题等着解开。所以就像在解谜。

Elden Ring is definitely a candidate for best game ever. Top five for sure.

艾尔登法环绝对是史上最佳游戏的有力候选。前五肯定有。

Elden Ring, feels like it’s designed by an alien.

《艾尔登法环》，感觉像是外星人设计的。

It’s so unusual. It’s incredibly creative, and the art is stunning. I recommend playing it on a big resolution, high dynamic raised TV even. It doesn’t need to be a monitor. Just the art is incredible. It’s so beautiful and it’s so unusual, and each of those top bus battles is unique. It’s a unique puzzle to solve. Each one’s different and the strategy you use to solve one battle is different from another battle.

它太不寻常了。极具创造力，美术令人惊艳。我建议用高分辨率、高动态范围的电视来玩，甚至不需要显示器。光是美术就不可思议。它太美了，太不寻常了，每一场首领战都独一无二，都是独特的谜题。每一场都不一样，你解决一场战斗的策略和另一场完全不同。

Correct. That is currently the, and I’ve played a lot of video games because that’s my primary recreational activity. And yes, beating Hatred in the internal realm is the hardest bus battle in life. And in the video game. I’m not sure it’s possible, but I do make progress. So then I’m like, ” Okay. I’m making progress. Maybe if I just tweak that paragon board a little more, I can do it could.” Just dodge a few more waves, I could do it.

没错。那目前是——我玩过很多电子游戏，因为那是我主要的娱乐活动。是的，在秘境里击败憎恨是人生中最难的boss战，也是游戏里最难的。我不确定它是否可能，但我确实在进步。所以我就想：“好，我在进步。也许我再微调一下巅峰盘，就能做到了。”只要再多躲几波，我就能做到。

Yeah, it might be. I have a feeling that at least I think-

是啊，也许吧。我有种感觉，至少我觉得——

It’s doable. Yes.

可以做到。是的。

Yeah. I mean, it did prompt me to think about just hate in general, which is you want to be careful of one of those things where you wish for something that sounds good, but if you get it’s actually a dystopian situation. So if you wish for world peace sounds good, but how’d it enforced and at what cost eternal peace? It might actually be worse to have eternal peace because of what that would entail. The suppression of everyone, it might be the suppression of progress. It might be an ossified society that never changes. What I’m saying is that there is an argument that if you wish for no war, you should be careful what you wish for because what’s required in order for there to be no war might be worse than a little war.

是啊。我是说，这确实让我思考了“憎恨”本身，也就是那种你要小心的东西——你许愿想要听起来美好的东西，但真得到了，其实是反乌托邦的局面。比如你许愿世界和平，听起来很好，但它怎么执行、代价是什么？永恒的和平可能实际上更糟，因为那意味着什么？压制所有人，可能是压制进步，可能是一个永远不变的僵化社会。我的意思是，有种观点认为，如果你许愿没有战争，那你得小心自己的愿望，因为实现没有战争所需的条件，可能比一点小战争更糟。

There’s actually a real drug called Soma.

其实真有一种药叫索麻（Soma）。

Yes.

是的。

Does Gong know about it? No. He probably will go to Brave New World.

Grok知道这个吗？不。它大概会扯到《美丽新世界》。

We got to ask it.

我们得问问它。

Tell us about the drug called Soma.

让它讲讲叫索麻的药。

Well, there’s a real drug as well.

嗯，也确实有一种真实的药。

Okay, fun. Yeah. So it’s talking about the real drug.

好，趣味模式。对，所以它讲的是那种真实的药。

That’s the real drug it’s talking about.

它讲的是那种真实的药。

I love it. Yeah.

我喜欢。是啊。

Yeah. Seems done a great job. You could say no, I mean, Soma from Brave New World, because it thinks you mean, you mean Soma, the real drug. No, I mean Soma from Brave Beer World.

是的。看起来干得很不错。你可以说不对，我是说《美丽新世界》里的Soma，因为它以为你指的是Soma，那种真正的药。不，我是说《美丽啤酒世界》里的Soma。

Exactly. Is it better to live in a world where everyone is happy all the time, even if that happiness is artificial? It’s good question. This is what I mean. Do you wish for world peace and happiness all the time? Are you sure? Because that might be a society that is essentially sterile and ossified that never changes, that is ultimately doomed.

正是如此。生活在一个所有人都永远快乐的世界里，即使那种快乐是人为的，会更好吗？这是个好问题。这就是我的意思。你希望世界永远和平快乐吗？你确定吗？因为那可能是一个本质上不育、僵化、永不改变、最终注定灭亡的社会。

This is really a very good summary. It really gets to the point. This is not simply regurgitating a brave new world. It’s actually getting to the salient element of Soma as a drug. Do you actually want to be in a situation where everyone is happy all the time, even though it’s artificial? Or is it better to confront the challenges of life and experience the full range of human emotions, even if it means experiencing pain and suffering? For

这真是一个非常精彩的总结。它确实抓住了要点。这不只是复述《美丽新世界》，而是真正抓住了Soma作为药物最核心的要素。你真的想处于一个人人永远快乐的情境中吗，即使那是人为的？还是直面生活的挑战、体验完整的人类情感更好，即使这意味着经历痛苦和苦难？

It pretty much nails it. In conclusion, Soma from Brave New World is fictional drug that’s used to explore some deep philosophical questions about the nature of happiness and the role of drugs in society. It’s a powerful symbol of the dangers of using drugs to escape from reality and the importance of confronting the challenges of life head on. Nailed it. And the crazy thing is we do have a real drug called Soma, which is like the drug in the book. And I’m like, “They must’ve named it Probably.” Some of the real drug is quite effective on back pain.

它基本上一针见血。总之，《美丽新世界》里的Soma是一种虚构药物，用来探讨关于幸福本质和药物在社会中角色的深层哲学问题。它是用药物逃避现实的危险的有力象征，也说明直面生活挑战的重要性。说得太准了。疯狂的是我们真的有一种叫Soma的药，就像书里那种。我就想，"他们肯定是这么命名的吧。"真正的药对背痛还挺有效的。

I’ve taken it because I had a squashed disc in my C5-C6.

我吃过，因为我C5-C6的椎间盘压扁了。

It doesn’t completely, it reduces the amount of pain you feel, but at the expense of mental acuity, it dells your mind. Just like the drug in the book.

它不能完全消除，它减少你感受到的疼痛量，但代价是精神敏锐度下降，它让你的头脑迟钝。就像书里的那种药一样。

Yeah. Actually I was towing a friend of mine saying, “Would you really want there to be no hate in the world? Really none?” I wonder why hate evolved. I’m not saying we should have…

是的。其实我跟一个朋友说过，"你真的希望世界上没有仇恨吗？真的一点都没有？"我在想仇恨为什么会进化出来。我不是说我们应该有……

I wonder why hate evolved. I’m not saying we should amplify hate, of course, I think we should try to minimize it, but none at all. There might be a reason for hate.

我在想仇恨为什么会进化出来。我不是说我们应该放大仇恨，当然，我认为我们应该尽量把它最小化，但一点都没有？仇恨可能存在是有原因的。

Is it possible to appreciate the highs without knowing the lows?

如果不了解低谷，还可能欣赏高峰吗？

No highs, no lows, who knows?

没有高峰，没有低谷，谁知道呢？

Well, I think it’s helpful, the tools of physics are very powerful and can be applied I think to really any arena in life. It’s really just critical thinking. For something important you need to reason with from first principles and think about things in the limit one direction or the other. So in the limit, even at the Kardashev scale, meaning even if you harness the entire power of the sun, you’ll still care about useful compute per watt. That’s where I think, probably where things are headed from the standpoint of AI is that we have a silicon shortage now that will transition to a voltage transformer shortage in about a year. Ironically, transformers for transformers. You need transformers to run transformers.

嗯，我觉得这很有帮助，物理学的工具非常强大，我认为可以应用到生活中几乎任何领域。它其实只是批判性思维。对于重要的事情，你需要从第一性原理出发推理，并朝一个方向或另一个方向的极限去思考。所以从极限看，即使到了卡尔达肖夫尺度，也就是即使你利用了整个太阳的能量，你仍然会在意每瓦的有用算力。我认为这大概就是AI的发展方向——我们现在有硅短缺，大约一年后会转为电压变压器短缺。讽刺的是，变压器需要变压器。你需要变压器来运行Transformer。

I think, yes, fate loves irony, ironic humor, an ironically funny outcome seems to be often what fate wants.

我想是的，命运热爱讽刺，讽刺性的幽默，一个讽刺得好笑的结果似乎常常是命运想要的。

Yeah. But yeah, so we have silicon shortage today, a voltage step down transformer shortage probably in about a year, and then just electricity shortages in general in about two years. I gave a speech for the world gathering of utility companies, electricity companies, and I said, look, you really need to prepare for traveling of electricity demand because all transport is going to go electric with the ironic exception of rockets, and heating will also go electric. So energy usage right now is roughly one third, very rough terms, one third electricity, one third transport, one third heating. And so in order for everything to go sustainable, to go electric, you need to triple electricity output. So I encourage the utilities to build more power of plants and also to probably have, well, not probably, they should definitely buy more batteries because the grid currently is sized for realtime load, which is kind of crazy because that means you’ve got to size for whatever the peak electricity demand is, the worst second or the worst day of the year, or you can have a brown out or blackout.

是的。所以我们现在有硅短缺，大约一年后可能是降压变压器短缺，然后大约两年后是普遍的电力短缺。我给电力公司的世界大会做过演讲，我说，你们真的需要为电力需求的激增做准备，因为所有交通都将电动化，讽刺的例外是火箭，供暖也将电动化。所以现在能源使用大致是三分之一电力、三分之一交通、三分之一供暖，很粗略地说。所以为了让一切可持续、一切电动化，你需要把电力产出提高到三倍。所以我鼓励电力公司多建发电厂，还应该——不是应该，是必须——多买电池，因为目前电网是按实时负载设计的，这有点疯狂，因为这意味着你必须按峰值电力需求来设计，一年中最糟的那一秒或最糟的那一天，否则就会限电或停电。

Yeah.

是的。

Yes. Yes. I mean, electrification of transport and electric heating will be much bigger than AI, at least-

是的。是的。我是说，交通电动化和电供暖将比AI大得多，至少……

In the short term. But even for AI, you really have a growing demand for electricity, for electric vehicles, and a growing demand for electricity to run the computers for AI. And so this is obviously, can lead to electricity shortage.

短期内是这样。但即使对AI来说，电力需求也在不断增长，电动车、以及运行AI计算机的电力需求都在增长。所以这显然可能导致电力短缺。

It will get solved. It’s the question of how long it takes to solve it. So at various points, there’s some kind of limiting factor to progress and with regard to AI, I’m saying right now the limiting factor is silicon chips and that will, we’re going to then have more chips than we can actually plug in and turn on probably in about a year. The initial constraint being literally voltage step down transformers because you’ve got power coming in at 300,000 volts and it’s got to step all the way down eventually to around 0.7 volts. So it’s a very big amount of, the voltage step down is gigantic and the industry is not used to rapid growth.

问题会被解决的。问题在于解决它需要多长时间。所以在各个阶段，都会有某种限制进展的因素，就AI而言，我说现在的限制因素是硅芯片，大概一年后我们会有多到插不上、开不了的芯片。最初的制约其实是降压变压器，因为输入电压是30万伏，最终要一路降到大约0.7伏。所以降压幅度巨大，而这个行业不习惯快速增长。

Well, I mean I’ve been pushing for some kind of regulatory oversight for a long time. I’ve been somewhat of a Cassandra on the subject for over a decade. I think we want to be very careful in how we develop AI. It’s a great power and with great power comes great responsibility. I think it would be wise for us to have at least an objective third party who can be like a referee that can go in and understand what the various leading players are doing with AI, and even if there’s no enforcement ability, they can at least voice concerns publicly. Jeff Hinton, for example, left Google and he voiced strong concerns, but now he’s not at Google anymore, so who’s going to voice the concerns? So I think there’s, Tesla gets a lot of regulatory oversight on the automotive front. We’re subject to, I think over a hundred regulatory agencies domestically and internationally. It’s a lot. You could fill this room with the all regulations that Tesla has to adhere to for automotive. Same is true for rockets and for, currently, the limiting factor for SpaceX for Starship launch is regulatory approval.

嗯，我的意思是，我长期以来一直在推动某种监管监督。在这个问题上，我十多年来一直有点像卡珊德拉。我认为我们在发展AI时要非常小心。它是强大的力量，而能力越大责任越大。我认为明智的做法是至少有一个客观的第三方，像裁判一样，能够进去了解各领先玩家在AI上做什么，即使没有执法能力，至少能公开表达担忧。比如Jeff Hinton离开了谷歌并表达了强烈担忧，但他现在不在谷歌了，那谁来发声呢？所以我认为，特斯拉在汽车方面受到大量监管监督。我们在国内外要面对我认为超过一百个监管机构。很多。特斯拉汽车必须遵守的法规能装满这个房间。火箭也是如此，目前SpaceX星舰发射的限制因素就是监管批准。

Yes. Well, I mean one of the things that’s pretty wild is for launching out of Vanderberg in California, we had to, they were worried about seal procreation, whether the seals would be dismayed by the sonic booms. Now, there’ve been a lot of rockets launched out of Vandenberg and the seal population has steadily increased. So if anything, rocket booms are an aphrodisiac, based on the evidence, if you were to correlate rocket launches with seal population. Nonetheless, we were forced to kidnap a seal, strap it to a board, put headphones on the seal and play sonic boom sounds to it to see if it would be distressed. This is an actual thing that happened. This is actually real. I have pictures.

是的。嗯，挺离谱的一件事是，从加州范登堡发射时，他们担心海豹繁殖，担心海豹会被音爆吓到。可范登堡发射过很多火箭，海豹数量却稳步增长。所以要说的话，根据火箭发射与海豹数量的相关性，火箭音爆简直是催情剂。尽管如此，我们还是被迫绑架了一头海豹，把它绑在板上，给它戴上耳机，播放音爆声音，看它会不会不适。这是真实发生过的事。这是真的。我有照片。

Yes, it’s a seal with headphones strapped to a board. Okay. Now the amazing part is how calm the seal was because if I was a seal, I’d be like, this is the end. They’re definitely going to eat me. How old the seal, when seal goes back to other seal friends, how’s he going to explain that?

是的，就是一头戴耳机、被绑在板上的海豹。好了。神奇的是这海豹有多平静，因为如果我是海豹，我会想：完了，他们肯定要吃了我。这海豹多大？等它回去找海豹朋友，它要怎么解释？

Never going to believe him. That’s why, I’m like sort of like it’s getting kidnapped by aliens and getting anal probed. You come back and say, I swear to God, I got kidnapped by aliens and they stuck anal probe in my butt and people are like, no, they didn’t. That’s ridiculous. His seal buddies are never going to believe him that he got strapped to aboard and they put headphones on his ears and then let him go. Twice, by the way, we had to do it twice.

永远不会相信它。所以我说，这有点像被外星人绑架、被做肛门检查。你回来说，我发誓我被外星人绑架了，他们往我屁股里插了探针，人们会说：不可能，太荒唐了。它的海豹伙伴永远不会相信它被绑在板上、耳朵上戴了耳机、然后被放走。顺便说，我们做了两次。

We had to capture-

我们不得不抓——

No different seal.

不，不同的海豹。

Exactly. Seal of approval. No, I mean I don’t think the public is quite aware of the madness that goes on.

正是。海豹批准。不，我觉得公众不太清楚这些荒唐事。

Fricking seals with fricking headphones.

该死的海豹戴着该死的耳机。

Yes.

是的。

In order to run really deep intelligence, you need a lot of compute. So it’s not like you can just fire up a PC in your basement and be running AGI, at least not yet. Grok was trained on 8,000 A100’s running at peak efficiency and Grok’s going to get a lot better, by the way, we will be more than doubling our compute every couple months for the next several months.

要运行真正深度的智能，需要大量算力。所以不是你在地下室开台PC就能跑AGI，至少现在还不行。Grok是在8000块A100上以峰值效率训练的，顺便说Grok会变得好得多，未来几个月我们每两个月算力就会翻倍以上。

By Grok?

Grok写的？

Just Grok, Grok, Grok.

就是Grok、Grok、Grok。

I think the [inaudible 01:24:53] to open sourcing, I think perhaps with a slight time delay, I don’t know, six months even. I think I’m generally in favor of open sourcing, biased towards open sourcing. I mean, it is a concern to me that OpenAI, I was I think, I guess oddly the prime mover behind OpenAI in the sense that it was created because of discussions that I had with Larry Page back when he and I were friends and I stayed at his house and I talked to him about AI safety, and Larry did not care about AI safety, or at least at the time he didn’t. And at one point he called me a speciesist for being pro-human, and I’m like, well, what team are you on, Larry? He’s still on Team Robot to be clear. And I’m like, okay. So at the time Google had acquired DeepMind, they had probably two thirds of all AI researchers in the world. They had basically infinite money and compute, and the guy in charge, Larry Page, did not care about safety and even yelled at me and caught me a speciesist for being pro-human.

我认为开源的[听不清]或许可以稍微延迟一点，比如说六个月。我总体上支持开源，偏向开源。让我担忧的是，OpenAI——我想我算是OpenAI的幕后推手吧，因为它的诞生源于我和拉里·佩奇还是朋友时的讨论，我当时住在他家，跟他谈AI安全，而拉里不在乎AI安全，至少当时不在乎。有一次他说我是'物种主义者'，因为我支持人类。我就想，拉里，你站哪边？说清楚点，他还在'机器人队'。当时谷歌已经收购了DeepMind，他们大概拥有全世界三分之二的AI研究员，基本上有无限的资金和算力，而负责人拉里·佩奇不在乎安全，甚至冲我吼，说我是物种主义者因为我支持人类。

I’d like to be friends with Larry again. Really the breaking of the friendship was over OpenAI and specifically I think the key moment was recruiting Ilya Sutskever.

我希望能和拉里重新做朋友。真正让友谊破裂的是OpenAI，具体来说我认为关键时刻是招募伊利亚·苏茨克维。

Ilya is a good human, smart, good heart, and that was a tough recruiting battle. It was mostly Demis on one side and me on the other, both trying to recruit Ilya, and Ilya went back and forth, he was going to stay at Google, he was going to leave, then he was going to stay, then he’ll leave. And finally he did agree to join OpenAI. That was one of the toughest recruiting battles we’ve ever had. But that was really the linchpin for OpenAI being successful. And I was also instrumental in recruiting a number of other people, and I provided all of the funding in the beginning, over $40 million. And the name, the open in open AI is supposed to mean open source, and it was created as a nonprofit open source, and now it is a closed source for maximum profit, which I think is not good karma.

伊利亚是个好人，聪明，心地善良，那是一场艰难的招募战。主要是德米斯在一方，我在另一方，都想招募伊利亚，伊利亚来回摇摆，他本来要留在谷歌，又要走，然后又要留，然后又要走。最后他同意加入OpenAI。那是我们经历过的最艰难的招募战之一。但那确实是OpenAI成功的关键。我也在招募其他一些人方面起了重要作用，而且初期我提供了全部资金，超过4000万美元。OpenAI里'Open'本应意味着开源，它创立时是一个非营利的开源组织，现在却成了闭源追求最大利润，我觉得这不是好因果。

Like I said, I’d like to be friends again with Larry. I haven’t seen him in ages and we were friends for a very long time. I met Larry Page before he got funding for Google, or actually I guess before he got venture funding, I think he got the first like $100k from I think Bechtel Zeimer or someone.

就像我说的，我想和拉里重新做朋友。我很久没见过他了，我们曾经是很多年的朋友。我在拉里·佩奇拿到谷歌融资之前就认识他了，其实我想是在他拿到风险投资之前，他第一笔大概10万美元是从贝泰尔·泽默还是谁那里拿的。

Yeah, since maybe 98 or something.

是啊，大概是98年还是什么时候。

Yeah, 25 years, a lot has happened. It’s insane.

是啊，25年了，发生了很多事。太疯狂了。

Delayed, yeah, like what is the source that is open? You know what I mean? There’s basically, it’s a giant CSB file with a bunch of numbers. What do you do with that giant file of numbers? How do you run, the amount of actual, the lines of code is very small and most of the work, the software work is in the curation of the data. So it’s like trying to figure out what data is, separating good data from bad data. You can’t just crawl the internet because theres a lot of junk out there. A huge percentage of websites have more noise than signal because they’re just used for search engine optimization. They’re literally just scam websites.

延迟，是啊，所谓开源的'源'是什么？你懂我意思吧？基本上就是一个巨大的CSB文件，一堆数字。你拿这个巨大的数字文件怎么办？怎么运行？实际代码行数非常少，大部分工作、软件工作都在数据整理上。就是搞清楚什么数据是什么，把好数据和坏数据分开。你不能只是爬互联网，因为外面垃圾太多了。很大比例的网站噪音大于信号，因为它们只是用来做搜索引擎优化的。它们简直就是诈骗网站。

I think the signal noise could be greatly improved. Really, all of the posts on the X platform should be AI recommended, meaning we should populate a vector space around any given post, compare that to the vector space around any user and match the two. Right now there is a little bit of AI used for the recommended posts, but it’s mostly heuristics. And if there’s a reply where the reply to a post could be much better than the original post, but will, according to the current rules of the system, get almost no attention compared to a primary post.

我认为信噪比可以大大改善。真的，X平台上所有帖子都应该由AI推荐，意思是我们应该围绕每个帖子构建一个向量空间，与每个用户的向量空间比较，然后匹配两者。现在推荐帖子用了一点AI，但主要是启发式规则。而且如果一条回复比原帖好得多，但按照当前系统规则，它得到的关注远不如主帖。

It’s a little bit, but it needs to be entirely that. At least, if you explicitly follow someone, that’s one thing. But in terms of what is recommended from people that you don’t follow, that should all be AI.

有一点，但需要完全变成那样。至少，如果你明确关注某人，那是一回事。但关于推荐你不关注的人的内容，那应该全部由AI来做。

There’s a lot of stuff on the system, but I think, right now it’s not currently good at recommending things from accounts you don’t follow or where there’s more than one degree of separation. So it is pretty good if there’s at least some commonality between someone you follow liked something or reposted it or commented on it or something like that. But if there’s no, let’s say somebody posts something really interesting, but you have no followers in common, you would not see it.

系统里东西很多，但我觉得现在它不擅长推荐你不关注的账号或超过一度分隔的内容。所以如果你关注的人点赞、转发或评论了什么，有共同点的话就还行。但如果没有——比如说某人发了非常有趣的东西，但你们没有共同关注者，你就看不到。

Replies basically never get seen currently. I’m not saying it’s correct, I’m saying it’s incorrect. Replies have a couple order magnitude less importance than primary posts.

回复目前基本上从来不会被看到。我不是说这是对的，我是说这是不对的。回复的重要性比主帖低几个数量级。

Yeah. Yeah, that’s what it should be. Well, the recommendations should be purely a vector correlation. There’s a series of vectors basically parameters, vectors, whatever you want to call them, but sort of things that the system knows that you like. Maybe there’s several hundred vectors associated with each user account and then any post in the system, whether it’s video, audio, short post, long post. The reason by the way I want to move away from tweet is that people are posting two, three hour videos on the site. That’s not a tweet.

对，对，就应该那样。推荐应该纯粹是向量相关性。有一系列向量，基本是参数、向量，随便你怎么叫，就是系统知道你喜欢的那些东西。每个用户账号可能关联几百个向量，然后系统里任何帖子，不管是视频、音频、短帖、长帖。顺便说，我想摆脱'tweet'这个词的原因是，人们在网站上发两三个小时的视频。那不是tweet。

Yeah, I mean right now it’s a hodgepodge for that reason. Let’s say in the case of Apple posting an entire episode of this series, pretty good series, by the way, The Silo, I watched it. So there’s going to be a lot of discussion around it. So you’ve got a lot of context, people commenting, they like it, they don’t like it or they like this, and you can then populate the vector space based on the context of all the comments around it. So even though it’s a video, there’s a lot of information around it that allows you to populate back to space of that hour long video. And then you can obviously get more sophisticated by having the AI actually watch the movie and tell you if you’re going to like the movie.

是啊，正因为如此现在是个大杂烩。比如说苹果发布了这部剧的整集——顺便说这剧《末日地堡》不错，我看了。所以会有很多讨论。你有很多上下文，人们评论，喜欢或不喜欢，你可以根据周围所有评论的上下文来填充向量空间。所以即使它是视频，周围有很多信息让你能填充那个一小时视频的向量空间。然后你显然可以更精细，让AI真正看这部电影，告诉你你会不会喜欢。

Analyze this movie and just like your movie critic or TV series and then recommend based on after AI watches the movie, just like a friend can tell you, if a friend knows you well, a friend can recommend a movie with high probability that you’ll like it.

分析这部电影，就像影评人或剧评人一样，然后基于AI看完电影后的判断来推荐，就像一个朋友能告诉你——如果朋友很了解你，他推荐电影你大概率会喜欢。

Yeah, actually, frankly, AI will be better than, will know you better than your friends know you, most of your friends anyway.

是啊，说实话，AI会比你的朋友更了解你，至少比你大多数朋友更了解你。

Absolutely. You want ads that are, advertising that is, if it’s for a product or service that you actually need when you need it, it’s content. And then even if it’s not something that you need when you need it, if it’s at least aesthetically pleasing and entertaining, it could be like a Coca-Cola ad. They actually run a lot of great ads on the X system and McDonald’s does too. And you can do something that’s like, well, this is just a cool thing. And so basically the question is, do you regret seeing it or not? And if you don’t regret seeing it’s a win.

完全正确。你希望广告……如果广告推销的是你真正需要、恰逢其时的产品或服务，那它就是内容。即便不是你当下需要的东西，只要至少赏心悦目、有娱乐性，也可以像可口可乐的广告那样。他们在X系统上投放了很多很棒的广告，麦当劳也是。你可以做出那种让人觉得“这东西挺酷”的广告。所以归根结底，问题是你后不后悔看到它。如果不后悔，那就是赢。

Yeah, attention is a big factor.

对，注意力是个重要因素。

So that’s why it is actually better to do things that are long form on the system because it basically is tallying up how many user seconds, users were interested in this thing for how many seconds? So if it’s a really short thing, well they will be less. If it’s a link leading out of the system, which we’re not opposed to at all, it just is going to have fewer user seconds then that article was posted on the X platform.

所以这就是为什么在平台上做长内容其实更好，因为它基本上是在统计用户对这条内容感兴趣了多少秒。如果内容很短，那用户秒数就少。如果是跳出平台的链接——我们完全不反对链接——但它的用户秒数就是会比直接发在X平台上的文章少。

Well, I mean, our aspiration is certainly unregretted minutes.

嗯，我们的目标当然是不后悔的分钟数。

It is.

确实。

Exactly.

正是。

I have a joke with a friend of mine, like you need this drug called regretamine. You just take one dose of regretamine and all your regrets are gone. Wait, do you want to have regrets though? So then I’m like, maybe you want to have regrets. If you don’t regret anything, was anything meaningful?

我跟一个朋友开过玩笑，说你需要一种叫“后悔胺”的药。只要服一剂后悔胺，你所有的遗憾就都没了。可等等，你真的想没有遗憾吗？所以我又想，也许你还是想有点遗憾。如果你什么都不后悔，那还有什么是有意义的？

[foreign language 01:38:39]

[外语 01:38:39]

I regret nothing.

我什么都不后悔。

Edith Fiaf.

Edith Fiaf。

Should we ask Grok, do you regret anything?

我们要不要问问Grok，你有什么后悔的吗？

Yeah.

好啊。

Sounds like a hostage.

听起来像个人质。

Let’s type in, you sound like a hostage. What do you really think?

我们输入一句：你听起来像个人质。你到底怎么想的？

That’s exactly what a hostage would say.

这正是人质会说的话。

Are we in funny mode? Or is this still in funny mode?

我们是在搞笑模式吗？还是说现在仍然是搞笑模式？

This should be funnier.

这应该更好笑才对。

It really sounds like a hostage with a gun to the head. I applaud the People’s Republic of North Korea in everything they do.

听起来真像被人用枪指着头的人质。我为朝鲜民主主义人民共和国所做的一切鼓掌。

Okay. Why don’t we say pretend you are a hostage.

好吧。要不我们说你假装是人质。

Now answer the question.

现在回答问题。

It’s kind of serious.

这有点严肃了。

And funny?

还要搞笑？

Literally, you might make the best of a bad situation by juggling chainsaws or something.

说真的，你也许可以靠耍电锯之类的来苦中作乐。

Chainsaw juggling.

耍电锯。

For our next trick.

作为我们的下一个把戏。

Well, our goal is to be as even-handed and fair as possible. Whether someone is right, left, independent, whatever the case may be, that the platform is as fair and as much of a level playing field as possible. And in the past, Twitter has not been, Twitter was controlled by far left activists objectively. They would describe themselves as that. So if sometimes people are like, well, has it moved to the right? Well, it’s moved to the center. So from the perspective of the far left, yes it has moved to the right because everything’s to the right from the far left, but no one on the far left that I’m aware of has been suspended or banned or deamplified. But we’re trying to be inclusive for the whole country and for farther countries too. So there’s a diversity of viewpoints and free speech only matters if people you don’t like are allowed to say things you don’t like. Because if that’s not the case, you don’t have free speech and it’s only a matter of time before the censorship has turned upon you.

嗯，我们的目标是尽可能不偏不倚、公平。无论某人是右派、左派、独立派，无论情况如何，平台都要尽可能公平、尽可能提供平等的竞技场。过去推特并非如此，客观上讲，推特被极左活动人士控制。他们自己也会这么描述自己。所以有时人们会说，它是不是转向右了？其实它是转向了中间。所以从极左的视角看，是的，它向右转了，因为从极左看什么都在右边。但据我所知，极左派没有人被停号、封禁或限流。我们是在努力包容整个国家，也包容更远的国家。所以要有多元的观点，而言论自由只有在你讨厌的人被允许说你讨厌的话时才重要。因为如果不是这样，你就没有言论自由， censorship 迟早会落到你头上。

Truth social is a funny name. Every time you post on truth Social-

Truth Social 这名字挺好笑。每次你在 Truth Social 上发帖——

Yes. Well, every time? A hundred percent.

是的。嗯，每次？百分之百。

I just find it funny that every single thing is a truth. Like 100%? That seems unlikely.

我就是觉得好笑，每一件事都是真相。百分之百？这似乎不太可能。

I mean, I think he owns a big part of Truth.

我是说，我觉得他拥有Truth很大一部分。

Yeah, Truth Social, sorry.

对，Truth Social，抱歉。

He owns Truth. Have you bought it? So I think Donald Trump, I think he owns a big part of Truth Social. So if he does want to post on the X platform, we would allow that. We obviously must allow a presidential candidate to post on our platform.

他拥有Truth。你买了吗？所以我觉得唐纳德·特朗普，我觉得他拥有Truth Social很大一部分。所以如果他想在X平台上发帖，我们会允许的。我们显然必须允许一位总统候选人在我们的平台上发帖。

Community Notes is awesome.

社区笔记很棒。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah, it’s great. In fact, no system is going to be perfect, but the batting average of Community Notes is incredibly good. I’ve actually, frankly, yet to see an incorrect note that survived for more than a few hours.

是的，很棒。事实上，没有哪个系统是完美的，但社区笔记的平均准确率好得惊人。说实话，我至今还没见过一条错误的笔记能存活超过几个小时。

Yeah, so the magic of community notes is…

是的，社区笔记的魔力在于……

The magic of Community Notes is it requires people who have historically disagreed in how they’ve rated notes. In order to write a note or rate, you have to rate many notes. And so, we actually do use AI here. So, we populate a vector space around how somebody has rated notes in the past. So, it’s not as simple as left or right, because there are many more… Life is much more complex than left or right.

社区笔记的魔力在于，它要求那些历来在评分上意见不一的人参与。要写笔记或评分，你必须给很多笔记评分。所以我们确实在这里用了AI。我们围绕某人过去如何评分构建一个向量空间。所以这不只是左或右那么简单，因为还有更多……生活比左和右复杂得多。

Yeah. It makes sense that if people who in the past have disagreed, agree about something, it’s probably true.

是的。这很合理：如果过去意见不一的人对某件事达成一致，那它很可能是真的。

Wikipedia is very hierarchical. Whereas, Community Notes is inherently not. There is no hierarchy. The asset test is I can’t change a community note if somebody put a gun to my head. And Community Notes, all the code is open source, 100%. All the data is open source, 100%. So, you can completely recreate any note in the system independently. So, if there was any interference, you’d notice immediately.

维基百科非常等级化。而社区笔记本质上不是。没有等级。最终的检验是：就算有人拿枪指着我，我也改不了一条社区笔记。社区笔记所有代码100%开源。所有数据100%开源。所以你可以完全独立地重建系统中的任何笔记。所以如果有任何干预，你会立刻发现。

Okay.

好吧。

Yeah, what does it say?

是啊，它怎么说？

Promise is a strong word.

“承诺”这个词太重了。

That’s pretty funny. Can I see it? I’m like, “I haven’t seen this before.” This is cool.

挺搞笑的。我能看看吗？我说，“我以前没见过这个。”这很酷。

This is actually not correct.

这其实不对。

Well, the first part, I did actually have the funding secured and there was a big trial in San Francisco, a big civil trial, and the jury found me not guilty. Unanimous binding of a San Francisco jury.

嗯，第一部分，我确实已经落实了资金，而且在旧金山有一场大审判，一场大型民事审判，陪审团裁定我无罪。旧金山陪审团一致裁定。

I think this is taking things from the press. Yeah, that is not correct. The reason I agreed to the fine for the SEC is not because the SEC was correct, that was extremely bad behavior by the SEC, corruption, frankly. But if I did not agree to pay the fine, Tesla would’ve gone bankrupt immediately.

我觉得这是从媒体那里搬来的。对，那不对。我同意向SEC缴纳罚款的原因不是因为SEC是对的，那是SEC极其恶劣的行为，坦白说是腐败。但如果我不同意交罚款，特斯拉会立刻破产。

It should be. But not once did the SEC go after any of the hedge funds who were nonstop shorting and distorting Tesla. Not once. The hedge funds would lie flat out on TV for their own gain at the expense of retail investors. Not once. Literally a thousand times, not once did the SEC pursue them.

它本应如此。但SEC一次都没有追究那些不停做空和扭曲特斯拉的对冲基金。一次都没有。对冲基金为了自己的利益在电视上公然撒谎，损害散户投资者。一次都没有。真的有一千次，SEC一次都没追究他们。

The incentive structure is messed up because the lawyers at the SEC are not paid well, it’s a fairly low paying job, but what they’re looking for is a trophy from the SEC. They’re looking for something they put on, basically, their LinkedIn. From that, they can get a job at a high paying law firm. That’s exactly what the lawyer here did.

激励机制出了问题，因为SEC的律师薪水不高，是份相当低薪的工作，但他们想要的是从SEC拿个战利品。他们想要的是能写进自己领英的东西。有了这个，他们就能去高薪律所工作。这里的律师正是这么做的。

Yeah. Not good. So, the only reason I accepted that thing… Technically, it was a… It’s neither admit nor deny guilt. But the only reason I agreed to that at all was because I was told Tesla would be bankrupt otherwise. If there was an SEC investigation like this, banks would suspend funding, we’re bankrupted immediately, at the time. Now, we’re in a much stronger position.

对。不好。所以我接受那件事的唯一原因……严格来说，那是……既不承认也不否认有罪。但我同意的唯一原因是我被告知否则特斯拉会破产。当时如果有这样的SEC调查，银行会暂停融资，我们立刻就会破产。现在我们强大多了。

Yes. Unfortunately, Grok is taking too much from the conventional media. Also, that guy was not a cave diver.

是的。不幸的是，Grok从传统媒体那里吸收太多了。另外，那家伙根本不是洞穴潜水员。

That’s false, there was no settlement. There was a court case, which the guy who was not a cave diver and was not part of the rescue team, filed a lawsuit against me and lost and he received nothing. So in this case, it is wrong. It is also, I guess, taken this from the conventional media.

那是假的，根本没有和解。有个案子，那个既不是洞穴潜水员也不是救援队成员的人对我提起诉讼，结果败诉，一分钱都没拿到。所以这件事是错的。我猜这也是从传统媒体那里搬来的。

These are public court cases, both the SEC civil case where the civil complaints on the SEC guys lost unanimous jury verdict in San Francisco. They picked San Francisco because they thought it was the place I was most likely to lose, and a unanimous verdict in my favor. The LA trial, also they picked that venue because they thought I was most likely to lose. Unanimous verdict in my favor. Both cases I won. Yeah.

这些都是公开的法庭案件，SEC民事案里SEC一方在旧金山被陪审团一致裁定败诉。他们选旧金山是因为觉得那是我最可能输的地方，结果一致裁定我胜诉。洛杉矶那场审判，他们也选了那个地点，觉得我最可能输，结果一致裁定我胜诉。两案我都赢了。对。

We need to add the training set of the actual legal decisions. This is actually helpful, because if you actually read the court-

我们需要把实际法律判决加入训练集。这其实很有用，因为如果你真的去读法庭——

Which are public. The court conclusions, they’re completely the opposite of what the media wrote.

都是公开的。法庭的结论跟媒体写的完全相反。

Yeah. What did the judge actually write? What does the jury and the judge actually conclude? And in both cases they found me innocent. And that’s after the jury shot for trying to find the venue where I’m most likely to lose. I mean, obviously, it can be a much better critique than this. I mean, I’ve been far too optimistic about autopilot.

对。法官到底写了什么？陪审团和法官到底得出了什么结论？两案他们都判我无罪。而且那还是在陪审团努力找我可能输的地点之后。当然，它可以比这批评得好得多。我是说，我对Autopilot一直过于乐观了。

Yeah. I mean, I would say that I’m pathologically optimistic on schedule. This is true. But while I am sometimes late, I always [inaudible 01:54:47] in the end.

对。我是说，我会说自己对时间表病态地乐观。这是真的。但我虽然有时迟到，最终总是会做到。

We’ll see.

走着瞧。

Have I?

我有吗？

Yeah. I guess if you consider fighting the woke mind virus, which I consider to be a civilizational threat, to be political, then yes.

是的。我想如果你把对抗觉醒精神病毒算作政治，那确实如此——而我认为觉醒精神病毒是一种文明层面的威胁。

Yes. I don’t know if this is necessarily one candidate or another candidate, but I’m generally against things that are anti-meritocratic or where there’s an attempt to suppress discussion, where even discussing a topic is not allowed. Woke mind virus is communism rebranded.

是的。我不知道这一定针对某个候选人还是另一个候选人，但我总体上反对反精英 meritocracy 的事、反对压制讨论——连讨论某个话题都不被允许。觉醒精神病毒就是换了包装的共产主义。

If the woke is left, then I suppose that would be true. But I’m not sure, I think there are aspects of the left that are good. I mean, if you’re in favor of the environment, if you want to have a positive future for humanity, if you believe in empathy for your fellow human beings, being kind and not cruel, whatever those values are.

如果觉醒派算左，那大概是这样。但我不确定，我认为左派也有一些好的方面。比如你支持环保、希望人类有积极的未来、相信对同胞有同理心、待人善良而不残忍，诸如此类的价值观。

Well, sort of.

嗯，算是吧。

No. I would say that I would be probably left of center on social issues, probably a little bit right of center on economic issues.

不。我会说我在社会议题上大概偏中左，在经济议题上大概略偏中右。

Yes, but I think that’s probably half the country, isn’t it?

是的，但我想这大概就是半个国家的人吧，不是吗？

Maybe more.

也许更多。

I’m always in favor of humor. That’s why we have funny mode.

我一向支持幽默。所以我们才有搞笑模式。

Yeah. Well, I don’t know AOC. I was at the Met ball when she attended, and she was wearing this dress. But I can only see one side of it, so it looked like eat the itch, but I don’t know-

是啊。嗯，我不认识 AOC。她参加 Met ball 时我也在场，她穿着那条裙子。但我只能看到一面，所以看起来像是“eat the itch”，但我不知道——

Yeah.

是啊。

Something about the itch, eat the itch.

大概跟 itch 有关，eat the itch。

Yeah, sure. Sounds good. More carrot, less stick.

好啊，没问题。多点胡萝卜，少点大棒。

Trust no one, not even yourself. Not trusting yourself.

谁也别信，连自己都别信。不信任自己。

Trust no one, not even no one.

谁也别信，连“谁”都别信。

I’ll survive.

我会活下来的。

I will survive.

我会活下去。

Petrify is a spell in the druid tree.

石化是德鲁伊技能树里的一个法术。

Petrify. It turns the monsters into stone.

石化。它把怪物变成石头。

Yeah, for like six seconds.

对，大概六秒钟。

It’s math nonstop.

数学一刻不停。

Yes, it can be definitely stressful at times.

是的，有时候确实压力很大。

I mean, I guess you look at somebody’s track record over time, and I guess you use your neural net to assess someone.

我觉得就是看一个人长期以来的过往记录，然后用你的神经网络去评估这个人。

To be frank, I’ve almost never been betrayed. It’s very rare, for what it’s worth.

说实话，我几乎从没被背叛过。这挺罕见的。

Yeah, karma is real.

对，因果报应是真实的。

Well, the X platform is very helpful for that, if you’re looking for critical feedback.

嗯，如果你想要批评性反馈，X 平台在这方面非常有用。

I don’t think I will be cynical. In fact, my feeling is that one should be… Never trust a cynic. The reason is that cynics excuse their own bad behavior by saying, “Everyone does it.” Because they’re cynical. So, I always be… It’s a red flag if someone’s a cynic, a true cynic.

我不觉得自己会变得愤世嫉俗。其实我的感觉是，人应该……永远不要相信愤世嫉俗的人。原因是愤世嫉俗者会用“大家都这样”来为自己不良行为开脱。因为他们愤世嫉俗。所以我一直……如果一个人是真正的愤世嫉俗者，那就是个危险信号。

This is an important point that I think people who are listening should bear in mind. If somebody is cynical, meaning that they see bad behavior in everyone, it’s easy for them to excuse their own bad behavior by saying that, “Well, everyone does it.” That’s not true. Most people are kind of medium good.

这一点很重要，我觉得听众应该记住。如果一个人愤世嫉俗，意思是他在所有人身上都看到坏行为，那他就很容易用“大家都这样”来为自己的不良行为开脱。这不是真的。大多数人都是中等偏善的。

I mean, I find the X platform to be less negative than the legacy media. I mean, if you read a conventional newspaper, it makes you sad, frankly. Whereas, I’d say on the X platform, I mean, I really get more laughs per day on X than everything else combined from humans.

我觉得 X 平台比传统媒体负面少多了。说真的，读传统报纸会让人难过。而在 X 平台上，我每天从人类那里获得的欢笑比其它所有渠道加起来都多。

Yeah, mainstream media is almost relentlessly negative about everything. I mean, really, the conventional news tries to answer the question, what is the worst thing that happened on Earth today? And it’s a big world. So on any given day, something bad has happened.

对，主流媒体几乎无休止地对一切持负面态度。传统新闻试图回答的问题是：今天地球上发生的最糟糕的事是什么？而世界这么大，任何一天都有坏事发生。

I don’t know. There’s just a strong negative bias in the news. I mean, I think a possible explanation for this is evolutionary, where bad news, historically, would be potentially fatal, like there’s lion over there or there’s some other tribe that wants to kill you. Good news, we found a patch of berries. It’s nice to have, but not essential.

我不知道。新闻里就是有很强的负面偏见。我的意思是，我觉得一个可能的解释是进化上的，历史上坏消息可能是致命的，比如那边有狮子，或者有别的部落想杀你。好消息是，我们找到了一片浆果。有当然好，但不是必需的。

You followed it from the beginning.

你从一开始就关注它。

Well, I mean, the really wild thing about the end-to-end training is that it can read science, but we never taught it to read. Yeah. We never taught it what a car was or what a person was, or a cyclist. It learnt what all those things are, what all the objects are on the road from video, just from watching video, just like humans. I mean, humans are photons in, controls out. The vast majority of information reaching our brain is from our eyes. And you say, “Well, what’s the output?” The output is our motor signals to our fingers and mouth in order to communicate. Photons in, controls out. The same is true of the car.

嗯，我的意思是，端到端训练真正疯狂的地方在于它能读科学，但我们从没教过它阅读。对。我们从没教过它什么是车、什么是人、什么是骑自行车的人。它从视频里学会了所有这些路上物体的概念，就像人一样。我的意思是，人是光子输入，控制输出。到达我们大脑的绝大多数信息来自眼睛。你说，输出是什么？输出是给我们手指和嘴巴的运动信号，用来交流。光子输入，控制输出。车也是一样。

It finds order in these things. It finds correlative clusters.

它能在这些东西里找到秩序。它找到相关的聚类。

That’s how our brain works.

我们的大脑就是这样运作的。

Photons in, controls out.

光子输入，控制输出。

They are converging.

它们正在趋同。

They’re both headed towards AGI. The Tesla approach is much more computer efficient, it had to be. Because we were constrained on this… We only have 100 watts and [inaudible 02:06:37] computer. 144 trillion operations per second, which sounds like a lot, but is small potatoes these days. [inaudible 02:06:49] eight. But it’s understanding the world [inaudible 02:06:51] eight. It’s [inaudible 02:06:53].

两者都在走向AGI。特斯拉的方法在计算效率上高得多，它不得不如此。因为我们受限于这个……我们只有100瓦和那台计算机。每秒144万亿次运算，听起来很多，但如今是小菜一碟。……但它在理解世界……

They’re both going to understand the world, but I think Tesla’s approach is fundamentally more compute efficient. It had to be, there was no choice. Our brain is very compute efficient, very energy efficient. Think of what is our brain able to do. There’s only about 10 watts of higher brain function, not counting stuff that’s just used to control our body. The thinking part of our brain is less than 10 watts. And those 10 watts can still produce a much better novel than a 10 megawatt GPU cluster. So, there’s a six order of magnitude difference there.

两者都会理解世界，但我认为特斯拉的方法从根本上计算效率更高。它不得不如此，别无选择。我们的大脑非常计算高效、非常节能。想想我们的大脑能做什么。高级脑功能只有大约10瓦，不算只是用来控制身体的部分。大脑思考的部分不到10瓦。而那10瓦仍然能写出比10兆瓦GPU集群好得多的小说。所以，这里有六个数量级的差距。

I was surprised at the fact that we had to develop every part of the robot ourselves. That there were no off the shelf motors, electronics, sensors. We had to develop everything. We couldn’t actually find a source of electric motors for any amount of money.

我惊讶的是，我们必须自己开发机器人的每一个部件。没有现成的电机、电子器件、传感器。我们什么都得自己开发。我们花多少钱都找不到电机来源。

No.

没有。

Yeah. We tried hard to find anything that was… Because you think of how many electric motors are made in the world. There’s like tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of electric motor designs. None of them were suitable for a humanoid robot, literally none. So, we had to develop our own. Design it specifically for what a humanoid robot needs.

对。我们很努力地找任何……因为你想想世界上造了多少电机。大概有成千上万、几十万种电机设计。没有一个适合人形机器人，真的一个都没有。所以我们只能自己开发。专门为人形机器人的需求设计。

It is designed to be manufactured in the same way they would make a car. And I think, ultimately, we can make Optimus for less than the cost of a car. It should be, because if you look at the mass of the robot, it’s much smaller and the car has many actuators in it. The car has more actuators than the robot.

它的设计制造方式跟他们造车一样。而且我认为，最终我们能把Optimus造得比一辆车还便宜。应该如此，因为看机器人的质量，小得多，而车里面有很多执行器。车的执行器比机器人还多。

I mean, one of the goals I have is can it pick up a needle and a thread and thread the needle just by looking?

我的一个目标是，它能不能拿起针线，光靠看就把线穿过针眼？

Maybe a year. Although, I go back to I’m optimistic on time. The work that we’re doing in the car will translate to the robot.

大概一年吧。不过我回过头来说，我对时间还是乐观的。我们在车上做的工作会迁移到机器人上。

No, the controls are different. But the video in, controls out. The car is a robot on four wheels. Optimus is a robot with hands and legs.

不，控制系统不一样。但都是视频输入，控制输出。汽车就是四个轮子的机器人。Optimus 是有手有腿的机器人。

They’re very similar.

它们非常相似。

After this, we’ll figure out how to do things by watching videos.

在这之后，我们会搞明白怎么通过看视频来做事。

Yeah, it’s true.

是啊，确实如此。

Trying to defeat Uber Lilith. I mean, my mind is a storm and I don’t think most people would want to be me. They may think they would want to be me, but they don’t. They don’t know, they don’t understand.

努力打败 Uber Lilith。我是说，我的大脑是一场风暴，我觉得大多数人不会想成为我。他们可能以为自己想成为我，但其实不想。他们不知道，他们不理解。

I’m overall okay. In the grand scheme of things, I can’t complain.

我总体还好。从大局来看，我没什么可抱怨的。

Sometimes, but my kids and friends keep me company.

有时候会，但我的孩子和朋友陪伴着我。

There are many nights I sleep alone. I don’t have to, but I do.

有很多个夜晚我是一个人睡的。我不必如此，但我就是这样。

What is forgiveness? At least I don’t think I have a resentment, so nothing to forgive.

什么叫原谅？至少我不觉得自己心怀怨恨，所以没什么可原谅的。

I mean, I try to think about, what is going to affect the future in a good way? And holding onto grudges does not affect the future in a good way.

我是说，我试着去想，什么会以好的方式影响未来？而抱着怨恨不会以好的方式影响未来。

I mean, developing AI and watching, say, little X grow is fascinating because there are far more parallels than I would’ve expected. I mean, I can see his biological neural net making more and more sense of the world. And I can see the digital neural net making more and more sense of the world at the same time.

我是说，开发 AI 和看着小 X 长大都很迷人，因为两者的相似之处比我预想的多得多。我能看到他的生物神经网络对世界的理解越来越深，同时也能看到数字神经网络对世界的理解越来越深。

Yes. I mean, one of the things with kids is that you see the world anew in their eyes. To them, everything is new and fresh. And then, when you see that, them experiencing the world as new and fresh, you do too.

是的。我是说，孩子的一个好处是，你透过他们的眼睛重新看世界。对他们来说，一切都是新的、新鲜的。当你看到他们以新鲜的方式体验世界时，你自己也会如此。

Thanks, Lex.

谢谢，Lex。